Iran, with a daily production of about 25 billion cubic feet of gas, is the largest gas producer in the Middle East; however, Qatar is expected to surpass Iran by the early 2030s with a significant growth in its production. Meanwhile, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Israel are also increasing their production capacities, and LNG will have a larger share in Asian and European markets.
Rystad Energy, one of the most important specialized institutions in energy market research and upstream oil and gas sector analysis, has released a comprehensive report examining the trends in gas production and exports in the Middle East. This report, prepared by senior experts Mrinal Bhardwaj, Senior Upstream Research Analyst, and Rahul Choudhary, Vice President of Upstream Research at the company, analyzes major developments such as significant growth in gas production in the region’s countries, increased export capacities, the impact of oil and gas price changes, and the Middle East’s role as the second-largest gas producer in the world until 2035. The report also covers key projects in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Oman, and the UAE and their impact on the global LNG market. The full report, translated by the Gaz Bonyan news agency, is as follows:
The Middle East is on track to surpass Asia to become the world’s second-largest gas producer by 2025, a position second only to North America. This forecast is based on research and analysis by Rystad Energy. Gas production in the Middle East has increased by about 15% since 2020, and this growth trend reflects the producers’ strong commitment to economically exploit gas reserves and expand export capacities in response to global demand.
Currently, the region produces about 70 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd), equivalent to 1.96 billion cubic meters of gas, which is expected to grow by 30% by 2030 and 34% by 2035. This growth will mainly come from major developments in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Oman, and the UAE. By 2030, the region will add 20 billion cubic feet per day, equivalent to 560 million cubic meters, to its production capacity—equivalent to half of Europe’s current total gas demand.
This outlook assumes that Brent crude oil prices remain at $70 per barrel and gas prices based on oil fluctuate between $7 and $9 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) (3 to 4 dollars per cubic meter). If prices fall below $6, new projects may be delayed, and the projected production growth by 2030 could decrease from 30% to 20% or less—depending on the depth and duration of the price decline.
To fully capitalize on this growth, the region is preparing for a significant increase in gas exports. By 2030, the Middle East will have 10 billion cubic feet per day of surplus gas for export, making it one of the main energy suppliers for Europe—aiming to reduce its dependence on Russian energy—and rapidly growing Asian markets. This expansion will be supported by a steady annual production increase of about 6%, with total regional production expected to reach 90 billion cubic feet per day by the end of this decade.
According to forecasts, about half of the 560 million cubic meters of increased capacity will meet growing domestic demand, especially in the industrial sector, and the other half will be allocated for exports. With more long-term gas contracts signed and increased export volumes, the Middle East is on track to become a key energy hub for countries seeking sustainable and reliable natural gas sources.
A significant portion of this expansion will come from new projects capable of producing gas at costs below $5 per thousand cubic feet (equivalent to 28 cubic meters). The three Gulf countries—Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia—are leading this gas-based growth. Among them, Qatar’s ambitious North Field expansion plan aims to increase the country’s LNG capacity by 80% by the end of this decade—from 77 million tons per year to 142 million tons—while maintaining competitive production costs below $6 per million British thermal units (MMBtu).
Although prices below $6 per MMBtu are not ideal for investment, Middle Eastern projects remain very resilient due to low breakeven costs—usually under $5 per thousand cubic feet. Even under long-term low-price conditions, production in the region is expected to continue significant growth. In such scenarios, some final investment decisions may be delayed, but the overall impact on production volumes should remain limited.
By 2028, the region is expected to add 60 million tons per year of new capacity, representing a significant share of the global increase predicted by Rystad Energy (equivalent to 150 million tons per year). Qatar is leading this development by adding 48 million tons per year through the North East and South North Field projects. The UAE will contribute 10 million tons per year through the Al Ruwais LNG project, and TotalEnergies is developing the Marsa LNG project in Oman with a capacity of 1 million tons per year. These projects are expected to require more than $50 billion in investments, demonstrating the region’s strategic effort to strengthen its position in the global LNG market.
Iran’s perspective on Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE’s rise in gas production
Currently, Iran, with a production of about 25 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd), is the leading gas producer in the Middle East. Qatar follows with 16 billion cubic feet per day, and Saudi Arabia ranks third with 8 billion cubic feet per day. Iran’s gas production, which has been almost stagnant in recent years due to Western sanctions, is expected to increase by about 6% by the end of the decade to reach approximately 26 billion cubic feet per day. A large portion of this production will come from the giant South Pars gas field, which was partially shut down recently amid the Iran-Israel conflict and an Israeli airstrike.
In contrast, Qatar is on a trajectory of rapid growth, with production expected to increase by nearly 50% to 24 billion cubic feet per day. This growth is mainly due to the continued development of the massive North Field.
Besides these two major gas producers, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are each expected to add 3 billion cubic feet per day to their production capacities. Additionally, Israel’s gas production is anticipated to increase by 1.5 billion cubic feet per day after further development phases of the Leviathan and Tamar fields. Although Iran is likely to remain the largest gas producer in the Middle East until the end of the decade, Qatar is expected to surpass it in the early 2030s.
The UAE and Qatar are implementing extensive plans to increase their production capacities, which reinforces the region’s strategic position as a future hub for global LNG trade. The newly produced LNG volumes in Qatar and the UAE are mainly intended for Asian and European buyers, with contracts indicating strong demand from Asian markets. It is worth noting that LNG purchase and sale contracts have seen significant growth, peaking at about 21 million tons per year (Mtpa) between 2027 and 2030. Among the main buyers are China’s national oil companies and major global energy giants.
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